The No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder are hosting the No. 5 seed Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday at 9:30 p.m. ET. SportsLine consensus lists Oklahoma City as the 3.5-point favorite, while the over/under is 218.5 points (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). 

Before you make any Mavericks vs. Thunder picks, you NEED to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the conference semifinals in the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 94-61 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows Oklahoma City guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to be the best playmaker for this club. Gilgeous-Alexander thrives in the mid-range area and pushes the pace in transition. In the first round, he averaged 27.2 points, six rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. In his last matchup against the Pelicans, he dropped 24 points, 10 rebounds and three assists.

The model also knows Dallas guard Luka Doncic is another all-around difference maker. Doncic scores from all three levels and has been a top-notch passer getting his teammates involved. In the playoffs, he leads the team in scoring (29.8), rebounds (8.8) and assists (9.5). On May 1 against the Clippers, Doncic had 35 points, seven rebounds and 10 assists.

The model has simulated Mavericks vs. Thunder 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations!

Who wins Mavericks vs. Thunder, and which side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 94-61 roll on top-rated NBA picks!